As the midterm elections loom, Stanley Greenberg’s supporters rise as Cassandra warns Democrats that they need to push for economic growth. the risk of being thrown out of the House and Senate by an angry vote. Greenberg, who was a close adviser to Bill Clinton early in his presidency, is not alone in making this argument. He is modeling the arguments of leftists such as Senator Bernie Sanders and author David Sirota (a one-time Sanders adviser). But Greenberg, with his credentials, is more likely to be listened to by party elites who often ignore the criticism of Sanders or Sirota.
Greenberg’s analysis is best understood as an opposition from the political party to the election. This orthodoxy was clearly expressed in a tweet by Democratic strategist Greg Pinelo: “This election is no longer convincing. It is about the composition of the electorate. If Kansas has an impact (not much), Dems will shock the world. If women’s turnout is historic and white women vote GOP at the usual rates, we’re going to lose.
Pinelo’s immediate statement should be open, with his principles clearly stated. What he is saying is that there is no significant body of conflicting voters (for example, voters who may support the decision but are also concerned about the economy, to respond to the Republican message) , or voters who may prioritize their wealth. great concern and who will be attracted to the GOP by default (since the Democrats are offering a weak message on the economy). According to Pinelo, this will be an abortion election, and the Democrats will succeed or fail depending on the voters’ priority on that issue.
Some researchers go further, warning that even talking about the economy is risky. Write to Police, said political scientist Cas Mudde, of DePauw University, “Democrats are right not to focus on the economy.” Mudde stated that “Of the most Americans they say they still feel the pain of inflation and believe the American economy is getting worse, not better.” But, he insisted, “The run on the economy is the more dangerous these feelings are, while Joe Biden is in the middle, that is. approval rating near their lowest point during his presidency, and the Republican party, which is still more reliable in the economy than the Democratic Party.”
Abortion, especially after Dobbs took away the constitutional right to reproductive autonomy, is indeed a prominent issue in 2022. In the event that the Democrats are stronger in special elections, and remain It’s not a big deal in the polls (doing more than the party that holds the White House usually does in the midterms), because tens of millions of Americans see this as an issue. -pe-mapu
But elections are rarely on a single issue. The main subject is not the same as the single subject. A successful political campaign usually involves voting blocs with different concerns. There is mixed news on the economy. As Mudde admits, many voters are concerned about the state of the economy. While it’s true that job growth has continued, concerns about inflation and declining real wages remain widespread.
Given this rocky economy and anxiety, it would be a huge political mistake not to offer voters a good program to address their concerns. Instead, the Democratic Party has settled on a message that celebrates Joe Biden’s past accomplishments—which, while true, doesn’t allay concerns about the future. Speaking to reporters in Portland on October 15, Biden said, “Our economy is strong as hell—inside. It’s a global economy. It’s great.” worse in other places than in the United States. He added, “The problem is the lack of economic growth and good policies in other countries, not most of us… it’s the whole world’s climate, and it affects it.”
Speaking to Politico, Greenberg issued a scathing rebuke to this kind of bragging. “It’s our worst message yet,” Greenberg said. “I have been tested. I did Biden’s exact words, his exact speech. And that was the test where we lost all our leads… The voters were told that this election is about my achievement as a leader. but not the challenges you are experiencing.” Greenberg added that the GOP is “hitting us on crime and borders and the economy…. It has a lot of power. And we have a message of satisfaction in many of the things we’ve done.” achieve rather than focusing on what is happening to people.”
On October 21 i The American Prospect, Greenberg posted a memo he wrote in collaboration with prominent Democratic strategists Patrick Gaspard, Celinda Lake and Mike Lux. The memo reiterated the point that Democrats can’t just be angry at the Dobbs decision but need to strengthen their support with a strong economic message. The researchers offered a three-pronged message.
The most important message is the first message: “Wealthy companies with monopoly power are raising their prices, and their profits are going through the roof. Major oil, food, transportation, health care, and real estate companies have posted profits over the past two years. I’ll get rid of the price tag, but let’s be clear: My opponent does the opposite. This can be strengthened by the conspiracy, they added, and a good program that promises future government programs to reduce health costs and costs for the Child Tax Credit.
The entire memo is worth reading as a viable way for Democrats to fight with voters fearful of the economy. But like David Sirota information inside The Lever, “the kind of populism that Greenberg calls a punishment in the two constituencies still called the picture in politics.” One of the constituencies that the political elites (pundits and think tankers) still maintain is neoliberalism. In another district, wealthy donors are covered in exaggerating language.
Like Cassandra, Greenberg may be overlooked. If that happens, it’s because the party is more likely to be defeated on a message that satisfies the status quo than on a populist one.