The college football season marches on after Christmas when UCF and Duke face off in the Military Bowl on Wednesday.
Duke was a pleasant surprise from the ACC under first-year head coach Mike Elko. He went 8-4 overall and won four of the last five overall and played in some tight games: just two points away from ending the season in fifth. -game sweep and just 8 combined points after one loss.
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UCF played for the AAC championship this fall despite a season-ending loss to Navy. They beat Cincinnati and Tulane in the regular season, but lost to Tulane in the conference championship rematch.
Duke is led by Riley Leonard, its primary offensive producer, who passed for 2,794 yards and led the team with 636 rushing yards, accounting for 31 total touchdowns.
John Rhys Plumee is a key player for UCF. He’s thrown for 2,904 yards and has a team-best 841 rushing yards, scoring 25 touchdowns on the season.
What do the experts think about the match? Let’s see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model reflects the game.
Military Bowl: Duke vs. UCF picks, predictions
UCF Prediction: The index favors the Knights, who have a 57.0 percent chance of winning the game outright according to the latest predictions.
Duke’s prediction: That leaves the Blue Devils with a close 43.0 percent mark to win their grudge against Group of Five challengers.
Spread of points: Oddsmakers disagree, listing Duke as a 3-point favorite against UCF, according to SI Sportsbook.
All in total: SI set the over/under mark for the game at 62.5 points.
Money limit: Duke -161 | UCF +125
Straight discs: Duke 8-4 | UCF 9-4
Against spreads: Duke 8-4 | UCF 7-6
Duke Betting Trends: 5-0 ATS in their last 5 bowl games … Over is 6-0 in Duke’s last six bowl games … Devils have covered in their last three games … Duke is 3-3 ATS as a favorite.
UCF Betting Trends: The Knights are 1-1 in both SU and ATS as underdogs… The over is 4-1 in UCF’s last five games.
Spread Consensus Choice: Duke -3
Score prediction: Team Rankings predicts Duke will beat UCF by an estimated score of 32.1 to 28.7 to win the Military Bowl.
Watching, streaming: The game is scheduled for Wed., Dec. 28 at 2 p.m. ET on the main ESPN network and streamed on fuboTV (Try it for free).
The Football Power Index (FPI) general football rankings and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season using a combination of analytics, including points to date, quality of opponents and team schedule.
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